Best anytime-TD options by matchup. Board lists players; Values holds the math.
Weight 0 = factor neutral. Calibrate against players you trust until fair odds ≈ market.
Columns: team, wrTdAllowed, rbTdAllowed, teTdAllowed, rzTdRateAllowed, passFunnel. passFunnel −1 (run funnel) … +1 (pass funnel). DC tendencies live here.
Formula. λ = base × opportunity × matchup × team-total; anytime prob = 1 − e^(−λ). Matchup grade = the defense multiplier (opponent TDs-allowed-to-position + funnel + red-zone rate). Tier = the anytime probability.
Active players + real data: nflverse (github.com/nflverse) has weekly rosters, game logs and play-by-play as CSVs — use rosters for who’s active, weekly stats for opportunity, and aggregate by opponent for defense splits. Implied team totals come from Vegas lines. Paste any of it above.
Research/entertainment only. No guarantee of accuracy. If you bet, bet responsibly.